MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Sunday 4/21

Brewers vs. Cardinals

Sunday, April 21, 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, Play to +115, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

St. Louis hands the ball to right-hander Sonny Gray, who has gotten off to a nearly perfect start this season. Through his first two starts, Gray is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest that regression (in a problematic sense, he obviously won't retain a 0.00 ERA) is unlikely as the right-hander ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%.

Today, we are going to back Gray in the strikeout department as he also ranks in the 75th percentile in strikeout percentage.

He racked up six strikeouts in his most recent outing, and the former first-round pick could repeat that performance against Milwaukee, a team he boasts a 2.82 ERA against through 13 career meetings. Gray recorded six or more strikeouts in 11 of those 13 starts and although Milwaukee has done a good job at the dish thus far, it still ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeout percentage.

Pick: Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, Play to +115)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Sunday, April 21, 4:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Giants Moneyline (-112, Play to -125, FanDuel)

By Sean Paul

The Giants signed Jordan Hicks to a hefty contract over the offseason and have seen a decent return on their investment thus far. Hicks has pitched to a 1.57 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 23 innings.

Hicks' main pitch is a sinker, which ranges from 95-100 mph and is used to generate ground balls — which is why Hicks isn't a big strikeout pitcher, despite throwing triple-digit gas. However, he did issues a trio of walks in his most recent outing, so he'll need to show better command in this matchup.

The Giants' offense had been struggling, but scored seven runs on Saturday. Most importantly, Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Wilmer Flores started hitting. Chapman collected a pair of hits and Lee hit his second homer.

Opposing Hicks is Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who continues to be a trustworthy top-end starter. Kelly owns a 2.19 ERA with a 3.24 FIP through three starts this season. He doesn't possess the same electrifying velocity as Hicks, but provides innings and gets outs.

Arizona's offense ranks in the top 10 in baseball with a 109 wRC+, but has seen some tough stretches.

You can attribute the ebbs-and-flows of the Diamondbacks' lineup to the streaky play of Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez. Both big-bopping righties are known to be streaky hitters and are slumping at the wrong time. Suarez is 3-for-23 in his past seven games, while Walker is hitting.259 with a .251 slugging percentage in the same stretch.

Additionally, the Diamondbacks' bullpen is one to fade until Paul Sewald returns. As a result, I'm backing the Giants on the moneyline.

Pick: Giants Moneyline (-112, Play to -125)